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Additional Expansion in German Waters 2017–2030


A fundamental innovation and change in 2017 with regard to the promotion of offshore wind energy concerns the conversion from the fixed feed-in tariffs of the EEG to a quantity-quota tendering and bidding procedure. The aim of this system change is to further reduce the costs of offshore wind energy. In addition, further development is to take place according to defined, coordinated expansion plans for the necessary grid infrastructure and the offshore power plants. According to current plans, a total of 15,000 MW is to be built by 2030.





Expansion scenario 2018 to 2030

Data source: [Fraunhofer IEE]



The path to this goal is divided into three phases: Old EEG legal situation (phase 1), transition phase (phase 2) and central model (phase 3).

Phase 1 - Old EEG legal situation: From 2017 until 2020 projects with unconditional grid connection or capacity allocation will be completed according to the old legal situation. On the basis of a cumulative capacity of around 5400 MW as of 31 December 2017, this means that with an average increase of only 600 MW in 2018 and 2019, the current expansion target of 6500 MW will already be exceeded at the beginning of 2020.

Phase 2 - Transition phase: The first tenders of 1550 MW each for existing projects will be issued as early as 2017 and 2018. This includes those projects that have already been approved or approved before 1 August 2016 or for which a discussion meeting has already taken place. The results of these two tenders are expected to lead to an increase of 500 MW each in 2021 (Baltic Sea only) and 2022 in a transitional phase from 2021 to 2026 and to an increase of 700 MW each in the years 2023 to 2025 inclusive.

Phase 3 - Central model: After this lead time, 700-900 MW are to be newly commissioned from 2026 onwards. The implementation of this expansion scenario then leads to the expansion target of 15,000 MW in 2030.

Based on a cumulative capacity of around 6440 MW by 31 December 2018, this means that the expansion target of 6500 MW will almost be reached by the end of 2018. This target will be reached early in 2019 with the currently installed wind turbines without grid feed-in (46 turbines [Deutsche WindGuard]) and a further 124 foundations without OWEA [Deutsche WindGuard]. Based on the average rated capacity of 5 MW and assuming that all these WTGs are connected to the grid, the installed offshore capacity will be around 7200 MW by 2020 - around 12 percent above the target level. The expansion of offshore wind energy is planned to develop according to the scenario in the above figure.

The first tender round for offshore wind turbines in accordance with § 29 WindSeeG took place at the beginning of 2017 [WindSeeG]. The tender volume comprised 1550 MW and concerns offshore wind turbines that are to be commissioned after 31 December 2020 [WindSeeG]. Four projects with a total capacity of 1490 MW were awarded the contracts. In general, some bidders were surprised to receive the award with a bid value of 0.00 ct / kWh as an additional market premium. Overall, the bid prices had a range between 0.00 ct / kWh and 6.00 ct / kWh. The quantity-weighted, average surcharge value of this first tender is 0.44 ct / kWh [BNetzA Ergebnisse Ausschreibung].

With the second tender [WindSeeG] in 2018, the transitional phase outlined above (Phase 2) also ended. The tender volume of 1610 MW was fully utilised. Six projects were considered, for the first time also projects in the Baltic Sea. The reason for this is the so-called "Baltic Sea quota", which stipulates that at least 500 MW of the available tender volume for projects in the Baltic Sea must be taken into account. Compared to the previous year, the bids for 2018 are significantly higher - by a factor of about 10. The average weighted surcharge value rose from 0.44 ct / kWh to 4.66 ct / kWh [BNetzA]. The bids for the projects in the Baltic Sea are comparatively higher than those for the North Sea, which can be attributed to more difficult site conditions in the Baltic Sea. The results of the tenders from 2017 and 2018 are shown in the following figure. The bids of two of the six projects from 2018, Arcadis East and Kaskasi, have not been publicly announced.





Tender results 2017 and 2018

Date sources: [BNetzA_1_Ausschreibung][BNetzA_2_Ausschreibung]